DRIVE IN
It is estimated that the peak production of petroleum will happen anywhere from the year 2005 to the year 2112 (1). Thereafter, production will decline while demand may well increase in the short term due to the development of countries like China and the continuing demand of the United States and other developed nations. The likely result of the decline in oil production will be increasing economic stress and military conflicts, depending on the time available for transition to alternative forms of energy.
But, in addition to providing energy for power production and transportation, petroleum also serves as a feed stock for the chemical industry and, in particular, the fertilizer industry. While a number of alternative fuels and energy sources have been proposed and are being investigated to replace oil, I would like to address the situation of the decline in oil, natural gas, and coal, and its effects on the chemical and agricultural industries. These effects could well be far more serious than the problems involved with energy and transportation.
One of the most important fertilizers produced is ammonium nitrate. This compound is made from nitrogen available in the atmosphere and hydrogen, either from natural gas, coal, or oil. It is used by itself and in combination with a number of other commercial fertilizers, but it is one of the three "bottleneck" nutrients in agriculture throughout the world. Even the simple effect of a current natural gas price increase "threatens to irreversibly cripple the U.S. nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing industry, which supplies roughly three-fourths of U.S. farmers' nitrogen fertilizer needs." (2)
Ammonium nitrate is essential to modern agriculture, which has doubled crop yields over the past 40 years. Organic fertilizers, such as manure and compost, cannot meet the needs of agriculture to sustain the current yield, which is already not keeping pace with the increasing population. Approximately 5% of the world's oil is consumed in making fertilizers. (3) If natural gas and oil production peaks sooner rather than later it could throw the globe into a catastrophe - energy vs. food.
In the United States about 90% of the petroleum industry is devoted to fuels. The remainder is "non-fuel products, including petrochemicals, asphalt, road oil, lubricants, solvents, and wax. Petrochemicals (ethylene, propylene, benzene, and others) are shipped to chemical plants, where they are used to manufacture chemicals and plastics." (4) With the increasing usage of natural gas, coal and oil for fertilizer production and their inevitable declines in production and eventual depletion, a crisis will arise between the competing uses of the dwindling resources. Do you choose to drive less? Turn out the lights and shiver in the winter or melt in the summer? Use less plastics, make fewer drugs, or just eat less?
I believe that food will eventually win out. Watching your family starve is a much greater motivator than not being able to drive to Aunt Millie's for Thanksgiving. Probably medicines will be a close second, but much of the world already does with few or none now. Famines may become the norm in the coming decades, as countries already strapped to provide adequate nutrition to their burgeoning populations are forced to compete with each other and developed nations for scare hydrocarbons. Transportation for anything but the most essential purposes will be outlawed, and energy use will have to be curtailed dramatically except as it pertains to the production, processing, and distribution of food. Food riots are much more likely than gas riots. People can and do cut back on travel readily but require a minimum diet. I'm all for reducing the population, but not through mass starvation!
Boo! Did I scare you? I meant to, since this is a serious problem that goes hand in hand with the end of oil. "What are we going to do when the oil well runs dry, mama?" Well, I for one am going to figure out the most efficient means of food production that doesn't use fossil fuels, and like yesterday, mama! Probably a combination of chemistry, genetic engineering, and better land use.
Sure, you can switch to more organic farming, but it isn't nearly efficient enough to carry us through 2112 without a collapse in the population. I would even argue that an eventual switch to organic agriculture could be desirable, once the population has dramatically declined and stabilized.
Before I worry about driving a hydrogen car to the drive in mid-century, I want to know they'll have veggie burgers and baked fries, and that the guy in the next car isn't planning on feeding his family by taking my meal - by force.
Charles D. Hord
References:
(1) Scientific American, Sept. 2004, p. 31, "Oil Haves and Have-Nots"
(2) The Fertilizer Institute, web site: www.tfi.org, "Fertilizer Industry Takes Action on the Natural Gas Crisis"
(3) University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Geography 416-350: Conservation of Natural Resources course, Chapter 6, Lecture 17, web site: www.uwm.edu/Course/416-350/chapter06/lecture17.html
(4) Petroleum Industry Analysis Brief, web site: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mecs/iab/petroleum/