WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO
WHEN THE WELL RUNS DRY, MAMA?

     We are definitely running out of oil. Every day it is getting scarcer and much more difficult to extract from Mother Earth. There is no longer enough to go around. But, instead of cutting back on our usage and saving it for only our most crucial needs, we are already having our road warrior wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. And what will we do when there is no more oil at all? That day will inevitably come. After all, there is only so much, only a finite amount of oil. What will we do when the well runs dry, mama? What will our lives be like then?


     So far, we have acted as if the well will never run dry. We have lowered our fuel efficiency standards, preferring even to go to war rather than make more efficient use of the oil that is left to us. So far, we have done nothing at all about the end of oil. Instead we have been using it up as fast as we can. This lack of an intelligent strategy is very shortsighted as well as economically and politically disastrous.

      "Since 1980, U.S. oil policy has been centered almost entirely on enlarging our supply of oil - either by drilling more oil wells at home or by cozying up to foreign producers such as Nigeria or Saudi Arabia. But as a means of energy security, this plan is dangerously obsolete. U.S. oil fields are nearly tapped out. Most of our oil allies are so unstable that supply disruptions - and price spikes - will become routine." (Paul Roberts, "Beyond Oil," Daily Camera, July 11, 2004, Section E, p. 1.)

     Various suggestions have been made as to how our present system, based upon the personal use of automobiles, can survive the end of oil. However, all of them are relatively shortsighted and address only the needs of our immediate future.


     We can focus again upon increasing our fuel efficiency, as we had begun to do before 1980. The new hybrids are a welcome step in this direction. "By doubling the average fuel economy of cars and trucks to 40 miles per gallon (which existing hybrid technology could do), we could save 5 million barrels of oil a day by 2015 - or more than twice our current imports from the Middle East." (Paul Roberts, Daily Camera, "Beyond Oil.")

     Speaking at a breakfast meeting before the Outdoor Retailer convention in Salt Lake City, Utah, recently, Robert Kennedy Jr. said that raising the average fuel efficiency by even one mile per gallon would "yield more gasoline than two Arctic National Wildlife Refuges." At the same meeting, he also said, "We can eliminate Persian Gulf imports, theoretically, by simply raising fuel efficiency by 8 miles per gallon."

     We can also raise the price of gasoline so that there would be an huge outcry from the many price conscious drivers, an outcry directed towards the auto manufacturers, forcing them to increase the fuel efficiency on their new cars, perhaps even to somehow upgrade the fuel efficiency of the many older models too. This would certainly be a wake up call for Detroit, as well as for Japan and Europe with their many exports to the United States.

     Other, non-petroleum based fuels have been suggested as an alternative to oil. Hydrogen has been one such suggestion, but most scientists agree that it would be many decades before we could convert all of our transportation to hydrogen. And during this time we would still be relying upon the dwindling oil supplies, with all the increasing hazards of doing so.

     In Brazil, new cars are coming off the Volkswagen plant in Sao Paulo that are equipped to use either alcohol (ethanol) or gasoline or any combination of the two. Similar cars are also being produced there by Fiat and by General Motors. So far, 200,000 of them have been sold. As of now, this phenomenon is restricted to Brazil, but there are plans to export the technology to other interested countries. The immediate problem is that no other country has the necessary alcohol production and distribution system in place.

     Several companies are already making synthetic oil from deposits of tar sands. These sands are in abundance in both Canada and the U.S. However, the process is very polluting, releasing large amounts of CO2 into the environment. It is also quite expensive.

     Some researchers are even playing the long shots - trying to make crude oil from pig shit, oil that could at least be used for home heating or to generate electricity. Others are even working to extract oil from Halophilic Algae, found in the shallow waters along our coasts.

     Some researchers are even going so far as to claim that there is another source of crude oil besides dead dinosaurs and fermenting prehistoric plants. They are saying that some crude oil may actually be a renewable, inorganic product of the heat and stress that lies closer to the Earth's core. This hopeful theory suggests that there may be still be large reserves of oil deeper within the Earth.


     However, focusing entirely upon our transportation dilemma limits the range of alternatives. We have many other energy needs, especially for our homes, our public buildings, and our manufacturing plants. Fortunately, solar energy, water and wind power have all shown their worth and could help to alleviate these energy needs.

     Where there is sufficient sunlight, solar power has shown its ability to provide for all of our home and other heating uses. Water power is another possible source of energy. In the 1930's, many small communities with a large creek or river nearby provided for all their electrical needs, using dams and the focused water power to generate the necessary electricity. "Wind technology has already shown its worth. If long-armed windmills were driving electric utilities, there'd be more oil for transportation, planes, trucks, and cars." (Jane Bryant Quinn, Newsweek, "Gas Guzzlers' Shock Therapy," August 16, 2004, p. 65.)

     We could also walk and ride our bicycles more. There are too many overweight people in this country anyway. Also, I'm a member of a sports gym and most of the members drive their cars, mostly SUVs, to the gym so they can walk or run on the treadmills or spin on the stationary bikes. This has always seems somewhat weird to me whenever I've walked into the gym's crowded parking lot. But perhaps the gym owner could at least hook up the stationary bikes being ridden to generators and then use the energy produced to provide for enough electricity to maintain the gym's many other energy needs.


     But, even before the end of all oil, there will eventually come a time when we will not have enough oil for our personal automobiles. What will we all do then?


     For most of us, our lives are built around the automobile. Eventually, no matter what we do to try to postpone the inevitable, certainly a long time before the final end to all the oil, we will have to live in a world without personal automobiles.

     The changes then will be intense, immense, and very difficult for us to adapt to. Imagine how difficult it will be for our modern families spread out all over the world. Imagine even something as simple as going grocery shopping without an automobile. Also, what will we do with all these streets and roads then? Perhaps they could all become playgrounds for walkers, roller bladers, skateboarders, and bicyclists, like the boardwalk in Venice, California.

     We will certainly have to rely much more on public transportation. Airplanes will soon become too costly and will have to be reserved for transporting only important and urgently needed goods and people.

     We will have to greatly increase our use of trains and trolley cars again, both the steam and the electric ones. We will have to stop using diesel soon. But we have to remember that steam comes from either wood or coal, both of which are non-renewable and increasingly scarce resources themselves that are just as finite as oil. We can also use electricity for our trains and trolleys. It is already being used extensively in Europe. But where will we get our electricity? Today most of it is generated using petroleum to run the giant turbines.

     On the oceans and seas, we will have to use boats again - ocean-going liners as well as the necessary coastal boats and ferries. And remember, it will be the same with our boats as it will be with our trains and trolleys. They will also need to use either steam or electricity to power themselves, although here perhaps we could eventually return to the use of sails.

     Without our automobiles, the workplace will have to be closer to home. Many of us will choose to work at home and relate to our jobs via computers. Many of us will want to work in our own neighborhoods. Businesses and manufacturers will have to adapt too, will have to relocate to find workers.

     All this will have a huge effect upon our family lives. Nowadays our families are all so scattered around the country. For a long while, we have been relying upon our cars or upon public transportation, such as trains and airplanes, to allow us to visit one another often enough to keep the family ties. Soon this will no longer be possible. Many families, when confronted with this may decide that they are too spread out from one another and will decide to move to be closer again.


     So far though, no one, except perhaps for the occasional writer of science fiction, seems to be talking about, let alone preparing for a future life without any oil. Instead everyone is focused upon the immediate problem of how to conserve it or how to make do with substitutes. But no matter what temporary solutions are tried and no matter how well they work, the day will inevitably come when there will be no more oil, none at all. The day will come when all the oil wells do run dry, mama. It is just a matter of time.

     But why wait for that day before we try to figure out what to do. What can we do now to prepare for that time when the well has finally run dry? For starters, how much more time do we have left? And how much more oil is there? There certainly can't be that much, especially not if we continue using it up as fast as we have been lately in our wars for the very last of the oil. And most importantly, what do we want our world to be like when we've seen the last of the oil? What sort of future do we want to pass on to our future generations?


     If we continue on our present unconscious lemming-like course, we will eventually die out as a race. First of all, we will be stuck here on Earth, stuck at the bottom of an impassable gravity well, like birds that can never leave their nest. We will never be able to access the rich and varied resources in the asteroids or on the various moons in the solar system. We will never be able to harness the power of the sun to supplement our energy needs. We will never be able to survive the inevitable asteroid or comet striking Earth. Instead, we will be stuck down here with limited and rapidly diminishing resources, just waiting for our end.

     Also, as the materials necessary for our present lives become more and more scarce, there will inevitably be a breakdown in society too. Nations, without the means of reliable transportation, will soon break down into smaller and less stable societies. Greed will become rampant as less of everything becomes available for our collective use. Armed conflict will increase as more and more of us compete for less and less.

     Because of all this, even before the human race has finally died out, we will have regressed back to an earlier and less civilized way of being. We will have regressed back to where we were hundreds of years ago but with no longer even the hope of ever improving our lot. Eventually we will be like rats trapped in a cage of our own making, fighting one another for the very last space and the very last of the resources.

     More importantly, if we continue to use oil at our present rate, we won't even have a future. Instead, we will all too soon render our environment unfit for life. Already we are undergoing extreme weather throughout the world. Last summer, heat waves in Europe killed 30,000 people. This past spring, monsoons in India killed thousands of people and left millions homeless. And in May of this year, one storm dropped more than 5 inches of rain on Haiti in just 36 hours. In addition, we are fast losing all of Earth's glaciers, and the Arctic and the Antarctic ice shelves are collapsing because of increased water temperatures. Furthermore, the United States Pentagon has recently said that global warming is now a threat to national security. Also, the largest property insurer in Great Britain predicts that global warming will bankrupt the global economy by the year 2065. (Ross Gelbspan, "Mending a Fractured World," Daily Camera, Section E, p. 1, August 29, 2004.)


     But, what will our collective future be like if instead we do wake up now and change from our present course to one that is more conscious and will allow us to continue to grow? What will our lives be like, as we prepare to leave our dependence upon oil behind, if we do begin to prioritize our most important needs and then make sure that we leave enough oil to meet all of them?


     We can still turn this around. We can create a future that will allow each of us to have rich fulfilled lives without the threats of global warming, continual road warrior wars, starvation, disease and social chaos. For starters, unless we wish to be stuck down here at the bottom of our gravity well, we might address our long range needs and begin to reserve enough of our oil to get us off planet and out to the Moon, to Mars, and especially to the asteroids and the moons of Jupiter and Saturn. That's where we will find our next great adventure, our newest frontier.

     Then, once we have established a real presence throughout the solar system, we will be able to use solar mirrors to send down an abundance of energy to be stored and used upon Earth. Those of us who wish to continue living on Earth will then have all the energy we'll ever need. We will have all the electric cars and trains and boats that we want. We can also begin to manufacture all of our needed goods out in space, where most of the raw materials will be found anyway. Then we can stop polluting our Mother Earth with the various and toxic by-products of our manufacturing systems. Once we have done this, we can turn Earth back into a worldwide Planetary Park.

     With no more oil for pesticides and fertilizers, we will have to return to farming organically, much as we have done for most of our history. Because of this, we will have to turn to a more labor-intensive way of farming. More of us will have to help with the growing and the harvest. More of us will have to grow our own food. More of us will be healthier too.

     An important side effect of these methods of solar energy production, off-planet manufacturing, and labor-intensive food production will be an immediate reduction in global warming and its threat to human existence. Mother Earth can then continue to be livable for future generations.

     We can also stop putting all our time and energy into making and selling so many things. We have enough things already in the world. Instead we can focus upon the creation and exchange of information. To do this, we need to build a true worldwide communication system, one that is free and easily includes each and every human being. We need to create a world in which the personal computer plays an even more important role than our personal automobiles have done up to now. We need to create a world in which everyone has his or her own vehicle for accessing the information highway.

     Many of us, looking for adventure and new challenges, will migrate into space - to the moon, Mars, the asteroids, and beyond. I personally plan on staying here on Mother Earth. I like it here too much to want to leave. I just wish I could live long enough to see Earth once it has become a Planetary Park, one that is mostly wilderness, interspersed here and there with small villages that are connected by the worldwide communication system. Maybe I can come back later on, in yet another body.

     I especially want a slower pace to all of our lives, especially for those of us who elect to stay here upon Earth. If we can just slow down enough, we can easily become much more conscious and wiser beings, all of us following the Tao. We can finally deal with mental illness then, most of which is created by our present societies, especially by their inherent speed and greed. Finally, I would like a world where our children can play and live safely again without all the dangers that are plaguing childhood today.

Eugene Marks